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Play a Gold Card

Updated: Oct 31, 2023

The SPX/S&P 500 Index has returned despite a few pot holes, an average of 9% per year since 1950 a compounded return of 15,713%. "You have to be in it, to earn it.


So, now YTD; in $$$; Nasdaq -9% and SPX -17% YTD; and the amount of people who have missed thus sizeable move from lows are now trying to talk mkts down, I’ll agree with them if politicans dont wake up to reality of total economic shutdowns beyond another 2-3weeks, but for now I see more good news and mkt is discounting and should continue to, as always “ pick your battles!’ but also think about how asset allocation will change in “balanced funds and balanced’ Portfolios. 


Also, by all means shoot me for saying this, but some of it really IS quite simple and logical, Newmont Mining is the 2nd best performing stock in S&P 500 index this year(+32%). Regeneron is #1. [GILEAD in top 10 too].


Regeneron may have a cure (or at least a help) for COVID-19 patients. Newmont has a cure(gold) for those suffering from central bank debasement disease. A few others: AMD, TESLA, [when everyone hates somthing]  NETFLIX, ACTIVISION and BEYONDMEAT.


Then on GOLD, well it finally rallied above $1,700 last week for the first time since 2012. To quote my friend Adam Johnson; "if all of the craziness in the world can’t get gold to break out, nothing will.”  Well, looks like governmental stimulus equal to 50% of GDP is all that was needed.


The all-time high near $2,000 has chart-watchers gold bugs salivating, but that is just 17% from here. Exciting but as the Nutstuff analogy goes, your goalkeeper in your football team {Gold in your portfolio!]  saves you on occasions but he doesnt score your winning goals!!!!


 Now to thoughts on retest of lows: Key Question; Have world stock markets already made their lows? Consensus seems over 80% skewed CONTRA to my view that with the peak of the crisis approaching potentially earlier than previously expected, there is a risk that the low may already be in unless, of course, governments keep the lockdowns in place for longer than necessary [this Qtr in totality is my parameter]. 


In this respect, the key issue for markets may have now become how quickly a return to normal is attempted. If the lockdowns are maintained all this quarter, for example, with minimal moderation, renewed sell-offs become inevitable.


This is why it will be interesting to monitor Austria and Denmark both of whom will begin to relax restrictions in the coming week. Sweden is also interesting since it has never really locked down, but its curve does not look much worse than the other European countries that have.  


So, yes, now all the investors who panicked and rushed out in March, are rushing back in, the shorts are covering, the algos are piling in, and then it feeds on itself. Where we go from here is of course still somewhat unclear, but again pick your spots.  


The S&P is already at 2800 which is where a sophisticated Macro group thought it would be at year end. I never thought the market was rational so where from here is uncertain. Maybe even a lot higher when things reopen.  


There is supposedly $1.4 trillion of retail investor cash now on the sidelines because they panicked and bailed exactly when they should have done the opposite. While there will be some more big down days, and bad news, if you are not invested here, you will miss a great opportunity long term.


My comment two weeks ago, come 1st MAY you will be sorry you did not get back in back then in late March. When a lot of that money does flood back into the market will really rally further, but nobody knows when that will be. Very likely too late.


Some will come back in early May when the economy starts to reopen and cases continue to decline in a meaningful way in most cities. By then you will have missed the real opportunity if you invest for the long term. 


Please see our disclaimer here: https://www.nutstuff.co.uk/disclaimer

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