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Blue Mist

Updated: Oct 31, 2023

Then:“I said in <24hrs it will be Russian fish eggs or humble pie for Nutstuff ”. Now: Well it was a 10:1 brave and contrarian shot for logical reasons that really came through, minorities and the forgotten showed up in ways no one ever thought they would or could. The Blue-wave never happened, and the experts and much of the polling industry was as wrong as it always seems to I/we got closer than anyone thought but ultimately I was wrong. My pie however is still in the fridge!

The reddish dawn of yesterday gives way to the blue mist of today. Trump may yet turn out to have had a long lasting effect. On reflection a seeming repudiation of the extreme left and extreme right, but populist candidates have appeal across different countries, and ethnic groups and they’re not going away. It is nhard to argue against this when trying to explain to my daughters who live in the US how to think about the ramifications of this.

Through all the noise and demos and conspiracy theories: America is still a democracy. N

It seems that Biden wins the White House and the Republicans will hold the Senate 51 – 49 (but that probably changes 2022 so think higher Taxes delayed etc)

If/when Nevada calls for Biden from here, there’s very little Trump can do, ironically and

especially if Pennsylvania calls for Trump: then he would have to acknowledge that all the states have rigged the words of Judge White from Bonfire of the Vanities, ‘be decent people’:, God Bless America.

Meanwhile the stock mkt is going up, Nasdaq 100 +9% since Election Day, (poor Mr Einhorn)

and Nutstuff portfolio a huge alpha day yesterday, interestingly the last time the SPX500 went up as much (2.2%) on a day when investors bought treasuries (10yr bond yield fell 10bp’s yesterday) was in December 2008.

The macro setup is excellent for stocks; A Biden presidency, A Republican Senate, No

massive spending “to make the bond market go crazy,” No major tax hikes, A ton of liquidity, A vaccine and “no more of the chaos.” And cash cash ...Institutional Money Market cash $2.8 T (T for Trillion). Retail Money Market Cash $1.5 T(T for Trillion). As long as Fed Governor Powell keeps printing, it’s all about fiscal.

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