top of page

April Roar?

Updated: Oct 31, 2023

First trading day of April, equities now seeing inflows, there are good reasons why systematic funds want to be "long" April.

I said months ago and repeat again, Let’s never forget the Roaring 20’s happened after

Spanish Flu. Right now: Inflation expectations: highest since 2008.

The Fed is clear: “we need 0% rates through at least the end of 2023 & trillions more in bond buying to boost asset prices & increase inflation”.

Meanwhile the Nasdaq/Growth trend having out-performed almost all asset classes since 2008 plus is over in terms of mega -cap concentrations.

Why stock picking now really matters in Technology especially. See Semiconductors here case in point. AMAT US, huge alpha here, also simple Semis/SMH US etf.

This all at the same time as the DOW/ EuroStoxx/ Value/ Emerging are now out-performing

considerably. This trend has only just begun. Massive infrastructure spending STUFF= Tattoo’s not top-knots.

Loosers & Winners:

Pandemic Losers are crushing their Pandemic Wining peers as the world re-opens. That makes simple logical sense. How many Zoom calls and Peloton rides will people wish to take this Summer? Don’t get me started on the likes of Deliveroo or DoorDASH. Instead talk to me about off-shore drilling!

Finally; Yes, Rates are now normalising higher. Negative Rates are not sustainable. For the third successive Quarter anyone long Fixed Income has seen a negative total return on their Portfolio.

Asset allocators will not be placing the marginal investable Dollar to Fixed Income unless they have to for many years to come as an opinion.

Please see our disclaimer here:

9 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All


To Nutstuff again this is a giant and very serious game of WHACK-A-MOLE, as the UK continues to take action against economic threats: First against Global; Mountain 1: commodity price inflation and n

More Bullish Than Consensus!

Yes, it is very clear how concentrated alpha in markets is. It’s the best excuse for underperformance I guess. If stock picking ever mattered it is now...Without FAANGMAT, “AI” Luxury and half a dozen

Duck hunting without a saxophone!

What we are seeing clearly now is the US trying hard to goad China in Taiwan, a diversionary tactic or a new game to play from the Washington bunkers. I suspect Xi plays the calm and longer game here.


bottom of page