Gosh it is truly amazing to see how much retrospective wisdom and high conviction there is suddenly in January!
Nutstuff is just trying to stay focussed here. I like the balance of the Portfolio, even though the market has done a classic early year mean reversion and the talking heads are clearly hoping for a Goldilocks situation where Stocks charge higher, the dollar falls and the Fed stops raising rates (maybe even reverses them) and corporate earnings remain strong as inflationary pressures wane.
Sorry I say ‘ollox! I am a cynic and a pragmatist and I sense we are actually now entering a somewhat dangerous zone early in the year where Fantasy might meet reality. I still see much laziness and intransigence in passive investing, that in layman’s terms mean a massive skew to over ownership of Big Technology.
For 10 years it truly was 100% of incremental earnings growth in the S&P500, but now that has ended. All this from the era of free money. The irony of Tesla mania to the reality of EV’s now effectively running on coal!
Many can debate Apple and Amazons “value” here, Nutstuff wants to be a long way away from this feeding frenzy.
My Needs vs Wants & Top-knots to tattoo’s thematic of the last 2 years remains and has been the beneficiary ofthe unwind of the “money is free/zero interest rate”bubble of the last 15yrs. It is in its 3rd year and now gets really interesting.
The final phase of this where reality is yet to bite is in the private and illiquid assets world. (Thoughts below). Who knows where indexes go or where earnings go for the market, other much wiser than me on this (see below) what matters to me is the right thematics and then a discipline on what to pay for that opportunity!
Nutstuff absolutely wants to own more stocks outside US, I have exposure in UK, Europe, China and Japan now and thematically I see so many interesting opportunities/ investment themes still out there, especially in the areas of financials, resource security & capex Defence, fossil fuels and yes, next-gen energy, even climate and obviously digitalisation.
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